Today's calls

10 matches · Europe/Warsaw

III Liga - Group 4
44%Wisła Kraków II
Draw24%
32%Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Wiślanie Jaśkowice's season-long goal stats (1.8 for, 1.7 against) imply open games and support relatively high Poisson lambdas (home 1.7, away 1.8). All Wisła Kraków II metrics are defaulted due to a lack of available data, and league averages are estimated, not published. Extensive missing fields and default usage result in data quality Tier C.
- Wiślanie Jaśkowice overall goal record — They average 1.8 goals for and 1.7 against per match this season.
- Fallback league averages — No published III Liga averages; used estimated 1.45 home and 1.15 away goals for Poisson inputs.
- No data for Wisła Kraków II — No verifiable stat lines or team news for the home side; all strengths default to 1.0.
II Liga - East
34%Śląsk Wrocław II
Draw26%
40%Chojniczanka Chojnice
Both teams have high xG and xGA values (home λ=1.68, away λ=1.74) and head-to-head history suggests a goal-friendly trend. Absence of team news introduces uncertainty but does not lower expected goals, given league and team averages. Mid-table status suggests neither side is likely to play with extreme risk aversion.
- Recent xG Home/Away Splits — Śląsk Wrocław II xG at home: 1.51; Chojniczanka away xG: 1.58
- Defensive Vulnerability — Both teams concede over 1.5 goals per match (Śląsk II xGA home: 1.60, Chojniczanka away xGA: 1.64)
- League Position and Recent Form — Both sides around mid-table with 24 points after 19 matches
III Liga - Group 2
39%Bałtyk Koszalin
Draw27%
34%Flota Świnoujście
With both teams starting their season and no match data, only league baseline Poisson values are used: 1.45 expected goals for home and 1.15 for away. There are no injuries, lineup news, or metrics to adjust the expected averages. Data quality is poor, so projections should be treated with caution.
- No 2026/27 season data available — Neither team has played a match yet, so all xG and goals metrics are unavailable.
- Default Poisson baselines used — 1.45 expected goals for home, 1.15 for away—no data for custom adjustments.
- No team news or lineup data — No information on absences or key player fitness was available.
III Liga - Group 1
44%Widzew II
Draw23%
33%Swit
Both teams displayed high goals-for and goals-against averages this past season, resulting in computed Poisson lambdas of 2.5 (home) and 2.9 (away), both above the league's estimated averages. Estimated Poisson inputs and lack of defensive solidity point to the likelihood of a higher-scoring fixture, though confidence is limited due to missing data such as xG, lineups, and team news.
- Both teams had negative goal differences but high scoring/conceding rates — Widzew II averaged 2.05 scored and 2.23 conceded per match, while Świt averaged 1.50 scored and 1.77 conceded.
- Poisson lambdas estimate above league average for both teams — Using estimated league averages (1.45/1.15), lambdas are 2.5 (home) and 2.9 (away).
- Recent head-to-heads showed one high-scoring match and one low-scoring — Widzew II won 5-0 in August 2025; Świt won 1-0 in March 2026.
2. Bundesliga
32%SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Draw27%
41%1. FC Nürnberg
Nürnberg's higher attack strength (1.24) and stronger recent form (unbeaten in last five) give them a slight edge, even away from home. Fürth's attack (0.96 strength) lags slightly behind the league average. The Poisson model rates both sides nearly even, with lambdas of 1.39 for Fürth and 1.43 for Nürnberg, forecasting a close match.
- Nürnberg Attack Strength — Nürnberg averaged 1.42 xG per game last season, well above the league away average (1.24 attack strength).
- Fürth Attack Strength — Fürth’s season xG per game was 1.39, slightly below the league home average (0.96 attack strength).
- Recent Form — Nürnberg are unbeaten in their last five (2 wins, 3 draws), while Fürth won twice, drew once and lost twice in their last five matches.
III Liga - Group 3
58%Goczałkowice Zdrój
Draw22%
20%Ślęza Wrocław
Goczałkowice Zdrój average 1.77 goals scored and 0.77 conceded at home. They concede 2.09 and score 1.36 per away match.
- Strong home attack/defence — Goczałkowice Zdrój average 1.77 goals scored and 0.77 conceded at home.
- Ślęza Wrocław away record — They concede 2.09 and score 1.36 per away match.
- Recent form — Goczałkowice Zdrój: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in last 5; Ślęza mixed results.
Ekstraklasa
40%Zaglebie Lubin
Draw29%
31%Slask Wroclaw
The strongest factor is that Zaglebie Lubin's home xG data (1.48) and xGA (1.78) drives their Poisson lambda, but Śląsk Wrocław lacks comparably detailed metrics after promotion. Key parameters such as league averages are fallback values (1.45 and 1.15), and away team strengths default to 1.00 due to missing data. This is a low-confidence (tier C) data assessment, with λ_home = 1.48 and λ_away = 1.78 as central quantitative predictions.
- Zaglebie Lubin xG/metrics available — Home xG per match 1.48 and xGA per match 1.78 (2025–26).
- Śląsk Wrocław promoted side — All metrics from lower division; no top flight data, strengths set to 1.00.
- Fallback league averages — No official Ekstraklasa averages, used estimated home 1.45 and away 1.15 goals.
Eredivisie
25%Willem II
Draw22%
53%NEC Nijmegen
NEC's multiple absences (at least three players including defenders missing) favour Willem II at home. Published league averages support a moderate baseline goal expectation of lambdaHome 1.80 and lambdaAway 1.38. The lack of team-specific season data reduces reliability but does not affect league-average projections.
- NEC heavy absences — NEC Nijmegen is missing at least three players (including potential defenders): Ahmetcan Kaplan, Freek Entius, Sami Ouaissa, Bram Nuytinck, and Perr Schuurs.
- Unavailable team data — No team form, per-match scoring rates, or advanced metrics are published for either club as the season just began.
- Published league averages — 2025-26 Eredivisie averaged approximately 1.80 home goals and 1.38 away goals per match, with total league goals per match at 3.18.
Primeira Liga
43%Alverca
Draw29%
28%Estrela
With no current-season performance or team news data available, lambdaHome and lambdaAway are set to fallback league-average values: 1.45 for Alverca and 1.15 for Estrela. Both attacks and defences use neutral strengths (1.00), reflecting the lack of evidence for any adjustment. Overall, this makes for a heavily caveated prediction due to Tier C data quality.
- Fallback league averages and team strengths used — League-average goals set to 1.45 (home) and 1.15 (away); both teams assigned neutral attack and defence strengths of 1.00.
- No current-season team or player data — No xG, goals, absences or new season output documented for either side.
- Low data quality — Current data for 2026–27 on performance, absences and tactics is wholly missing.
La Liga
41%Alaves
Draw33%
26%Getafe
Both teams showed mixed form over the last five matches, but with no reliable home/away splits or advanced metrics, the Poisson prediction relies on league-average values (1.45 home, 1.15 away) and defaults for Alaves’ strengths. Getafe's slightly below-average away attack strength (0.93) mildly lowers the goal projection. Alaves miss a forward and defender, but neither absence can be shown to be decisive given the lack of verified lineup or scorer data.
- League-average goals fallback — No reliable league-wide goal averages found; used defaults (home 1.45, away 1.15) for Poisson model.
- Getafe attack strength — Getafe away xG (1.07) relative to league estimated average (1.15) gives attackStrengthAway ≈ 0.93.
- Alaves missing players — Boyé (forward, doubt) and García (defender, confirmed out) both affect selection, but their first-team or scoring status is unconfirmed.